
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk has his U.S. government security clearance formally removed, suspended, downgraded, or otherwise revoked by an authorized United States government agency between June 9, and June 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Removal includes any official action resulting in Musk no longer holding an active security clearance of any level, including permanent or temporary revocation, suspension, or formal downgrade. If Musk voluntarily resigns his clearance or leaves a position resulting in automatic clearance invalidation, this will also qualify provided the loss of clearance is publicly documented. A downgrade to a lower clearance level will qualify if it constitutes a reduction in access formally recognized by a government agency. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 12:47:59 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.