Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$107.7

Total volume$107.7

Liquidity$235

Event end date · UTCJan 28, 2027

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?Accepting ordersMarket odds16.5%

Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?

Yes16.5%Polymarket estimate

No83.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $239.6
Deadline · UTC: Jan 28, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 4.0¢ / 29.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Get the Foretrace AI forecast

See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk ceases to be a co-lead of the U.S. Department of War’s Project Meridian for any period of time during which the project is ongoing between market creation and January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/removal before the projects conclusion by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The conclusion or dissolution of Project Meridian before January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Elon Musk and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.