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Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$92.9K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJun 25, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
8 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<-4%ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jun 25, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.1¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.