Did the Alaska balloon come from China?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$7.3K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCMar 15, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Did the Alaska balloon come from China?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Mar 15, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On March 1, 2024, it was reported that a fisherman found a balloon off the coast of Alaska: (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/politics/fishermen-possible-spy-balloon-fbi-alaska/index.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ‘mystery balloon’ is confirmed to be Chinese in origin by March 15, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note: The balloon need not have started its journey in China, it merely needs to be confirmed that it is of Chinese origin. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements made by the government of the United States of America. Official statements that indicate that the balloon is likely or presumed to be of Chinese origin will be sufficient to resolve this market positively. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.