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Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$761.4K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The longest U.S. government shutdown in history lasted 35 days, from December 22, 2018, until January 25, 2019. The current shutdown began at 12:01 AM ET on October 1, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a government funding bill is not signed into law by the President by November 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the bill must actually be signed by the President. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.