Congress authorizes military force against Iran before August?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$13.6K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCAug 1, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Congress authorizes military force against Iran before August?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Aug 1, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.3¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.