China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

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Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

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24h volume$2.3K

Total volume$498.9K

Liquidity$44.9K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Accepting ordersMarket odds26.5%

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Yes26.5%Polymarket estimate

No73.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $44.9K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 26.0¢ / 27.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.