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China Annual GDP Growth 2026
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 10 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$185.7
Total volume$917.9K
Liquidity$88.6K
Event end date · UTCFeb 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
10 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<1.0%Accepting ordersMarket odds0.1%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?
Yes0.1%Polymarket estimate
No99.9%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $7.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 31, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.2¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.