
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Celestia token ($TIA) is above $1.000 (i.e. $1.001 or greater) one week after token airdrop occurs. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Celestia will have a total supply of 1 billion $TIA at genesis (see https://docs.celestia.org/learn/staking-governance-supply). "One week after launch" is defined as exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the token airdrop occurs, which is estimated to happen on Oct 31, 10 AM ET (see https://x.com/binance/status/1718982971796168778?s=20). This market description will be updated with the exact time it occurred as soon as it is known. The resolution source for this market will be Binance, specifically the spot price of $TIA. If the price doesn't exist on Binance at resolution time, a consensus of highly liquid price sources will be used instead. If Celestia doesn't airdrop by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Celestia token ($TIA) is above $2.000 (i.e. $2.001 or greater) one week after token airdrop occurs. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Celestia will have a total supply of 1 billion $TIA at genesis (see https://docs.celestia.org/learn/staking-governance-supply). "One week after launch" is defined as exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the token airdrop occurs, which is estimated to happen on Oct 31, 10 AM ET (see https://x.com/binance/status/1718982971796168778?s=20). This market description will be updated with the exact time it occurred as soon as it is known. The resolution source for this market will be Binance, specifically the spot price of $TIA. If the price doesn't exist on Binance at resolution time, a consensus of highly liquid price sources will be used instead. If Celestia doesn't airdrop by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Celestia token ($TIA) is above $5.000 (i.e. $5.001 or greater) one week after token airdrop occurs. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Celestia will have a total supply of 1 billion $TIA at genesis (see https://docs.celestia.org/learn/staking-governance-supply). "One week after launch" is defined as exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the token airdrop occurs, which is estimated to happen on Oct 31, 10 AM ET (see https://x.com/binance/status/1718982971796168778?s=20). This market description will be updated with the exact time it occurred as soon as it is known. The resolution source for this market will be Binance, specifically the spot price of $TIA. If the price doesn't exist on Binance at resolution time, a consensus of highly liquid price sources will be used instead. If Celestia doesn't airdrop by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 4:05:13 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.