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Caroline Ellison prison time?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCSep 24, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
No Prison TimeClosedMarket odds0%
Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Sep 24, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.4¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Former CEO of Alameda Research Caroline Ellison is scheduled to be sentenced on September 24, 2024 (see https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/09/11/former-ftx-executive-caroline-ellisons-sentencing-hearing-set-for-sept-24/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Caroline Ellison is not sentenced to spend any time in custody of a jail or prison, as part of "United States of America v. Caroline Ellison", by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "Yes". If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.