
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, by Nov 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET a bill is signed into law in the U.S. which effectively increases the top net long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals to a rate higher than 20%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note: if a bill has the effect of treating net long-term capital gains as ordinary income, and the top rate on the income is above 20%, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Surtaxes or other modifications to what is considered long-term capital gains will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 11:18:45 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.