Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$3.7K

Liquidity$10.8K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?Accepting ordersMarket odds6%

Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?

Yes6%Polymarket estimate

No94%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $10.7K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 5.0¢ / 7.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify. An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed. A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify. Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.