Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$544.4

Liquidity$11.2K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2029

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?Accepting ordersMarket odds9.5%

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

Yes9.5%Polymarket estimate

No90.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $11.2K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2029
Yes bid / ask: 9.0¢ / 10.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada has officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Canada will be considered to have officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state on the date that all required parties and EU member-states have signed and ratified an accession treaty or other legally binding instrument admitting Canada as a member state of the European Union. Membership subject to opt-outs, derogations, or transition periods on specific EU policies will qualify, provided Canada is admitted as a member state of the European Union under a signed and ratified accession treaty. Associate membership, the proposed "Alliance for the Future", and any other associate, partner, or affiliate status short of full membership will not qualify. Candidate status, the opening or conclusion of accession negotiations, and any other stage of the accession process short of a signed and ratified accession treaty will not qualify. Membership in the European Economic Area, a customs union with the European Union, and any association, framework, trade, security, or cooperation agreement with the European Union will also not qualify. Once a qualifying treaty has been ratified per the terms above, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, or other change in status. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the European Commission, the European Council, and the Government of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting, may also be used.