California Recall Election Reform Proposition

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$474

Liquidity$912.9

Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

California Recall Election Reform PropositionAccepting ordersMarket odds61%

California Recall Election Reform Proposition

Yes61%Polymarket estimate

No39%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $912.9
Deadline · UTC: Nov 4, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 41.0¢ / 81.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).