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California Prop 50 winning margin?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$535.8K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<26%ClosedMarket odds0%
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by <26%?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Not specified
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California.