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CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 11 open questions · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$41.2
Liquidity$949.1
Event end date · UTCNov 3, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
11 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Democrat 30%+Accepting ordersMarket odds38.5%
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-38 House election by 30% or more?
Yes38.5%Polymarket estimate
No61.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $99.2
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 3, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 4.0¢ / 73.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.