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CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$20
Total volume$14.3K
Liquidity$52.8K
Event end date · UTCNov 5, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Eric JonesAccepting ordersMarket odds18.5%
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?
Yes18.5%Polymarket estimate
No81.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $32.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 5, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 17.0¢ / 20.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).