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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?
Foretrace AI research
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Choose a market to analyze 5 eligible questions · Evidence required
24h volume$7.6K
Total volume$45.1K
Liquidity$246.3K
Event end date · UTCOct 4, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<35%Accepting ordersMarket odds0.95%
Will Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes0.95%Polymarket estimate
No99.1%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $48.7K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 4, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.5¢ / 1.4¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).