Border + Ukraine aid deal by Feb 9?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volume$0

Total volume$75K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCFeb 9, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Border + Ukraine aid deal by Feb 9?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $0
Deadline · UTC: Feb 9, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

Increasing public attention to American immigration policy has driven Republicans to ensure any potential Ukraine aid bill is paired with changes to US border law. A Ukraine aid / border deal was reportedly close to passing as of Jan 22 - however Donald Trump has publicly taken a hard stance against any compromise, jeopardizing the deal. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill containing changes/funding to US border security and at least $5 billion in aid to Ukraine is signed into law by February 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Funding for replenishment of US stocks sent to Ukraine counts as Ukraine aid. Note: A bill that only contains Ukraine aid, or only contains changes to US border law will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - a bill containing both must be signed into law by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes." The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.