Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$6.1K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?ClosedMarket odds100%

Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?

AfD100%Polymarket estimate

SPD0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
AfD bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).