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Base iPhone 18 released by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 3 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$102.3
Total volume$789.4
Liquidity$2.8K
Event end date · UTCMay 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
3 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
February 28, 2027Accepting ordersMarket odds10.5%
Base iPhone 18 released by February 28, 2027?
Yes10.5%Polymarket estimate
No89.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $913.3
- Deadline · UTC
- Mar 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 10.0¢ / 11.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.