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Bank of Japan Decision in December?
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24h volume$154.8
Total volume$10.2K
Liquidity$9.4K
Event end date · UTCDec 18, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
50+ bps decreaseAccepting ordersMarket odds0.15%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes0.15%Polymarket estimate
No99.9%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.6K
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 18, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.1¢ / 0.2¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.