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AZ-07 Special Election: Adelita Grijalva margin of victory?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.1M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCOct 14, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<30%ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Sep 23, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Adelita Grijalva in the 2025 special election for Arizona's 7th Congressional District to replace former Representative Raúl Grijalva. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Grijalva's vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Adelita Grijalva does not receive the most votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the State of Arizona. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.