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Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$51.7K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCAug 31, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<25ClosedMarket odds100%
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Aug 31, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.