China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev | Foretrace

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China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

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24h volume$333.3K

Total volume$333.3K

Liquidity$101.8K

Event end date · UTCOct 11, 2026

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

16 markets

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey RublevAccepting ordersMarket odds48.5%

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

Alex de Minaur48.5%Polymarket estimate

Andrey Rublev51.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $133.6K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Alex de Minaur bid / ask: 48.0¢ / 49.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Total Sets: O/U 2.5Accepting ordersMarket odds87%

Alex de Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Over 2.587%Polymarket estimate

Under 2.513%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $410
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over 2.5 bid / ask: 78.0¢ / 96.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 3, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, or is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. An outcome is considered unequivocally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, for a line of 2.5, if play stops with the players at one set each, completing the match would have required at least one additional set, resulting in at least 3 sets played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or has not been completed by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless an outcome was already unequivocally determined as described above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Set 1 O/U 8.5Awaiting resolutionMarket odds0.05%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Over0.05%Polymarket estimate

Under>99.9%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $4.5K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

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Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Set 1 O/U 9.5Awaiting resolutionMarket odds0.05%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5

Over0.05%Polymarket estimate

Under>99.9%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $4.6K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

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Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Set 1 O/U 10.5Awaiting resolutionMarket odds0.05%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5

Over0.05%Polymarket estimate

Under>99.9%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $4K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Get the Foretrace AI forecast

See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

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Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Set 2 O/U 8.5Accepting ordersMarket odds50%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5

Over50%Polymarket estimate

Under50%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: — / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

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Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Set 2 O/U 9.5Accepting ordersMarket odds50%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5

Over50%Polymarket estimate

Under50%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: — / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Get the Foretrace AI forecast

See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Set 2 O/U 10.5Accepting ordersMarket odds50%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5

Over50%Polymarket estimate

Under50%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: — / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Get the Foretrace AI forecast

See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Match O/U 21.5Accepting ordersMarket odds84.5%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5

Over84.5%Polymarket estimate

Under15.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $13.8
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: 69.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Match O/U 22.5Accepting ordersMarket odds78.5%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Match O/U 22.5

Over78.5%Polymarket estimate

Under21.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $549.2
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: 74.0¢ / 83.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Match O/U 23.5Accepting ordersMarket odds41%

Minaur vs. Rublev: Match O/U 23.5

Over41%Polymarket estimate

Under59%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $3.7
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Over bid / ask: — / 82.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

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Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Game Spread +/-1.5Accepting ordersMarket odds20.5%

Game Spread: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Andrey Rublev (+1.5)

Alex de Minaur20.5%Polymarket estimate

Andrey Rublev79.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $95
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2026
Alex de Minaur bid / ask: 11.0¢ / 30.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Alex de Minaur" if Alex de Minaur wins 1.5 or more total games than Andrey Rublev in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Andrey Rublev". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Alex de Minaur could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Andrey Rublev". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

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Price history

Outcomes & resolution rules

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

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China Open: Completed Match: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

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Set 1 Winner: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

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Set 2 Winner: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

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Alex de Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Match O/U 22.5

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Minaur vs. Rublev: Match O/U 23.5

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Set Handicap: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Andrey Rublev (+1.5)

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Game Spread: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Andrey Rublev (+1.5)

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