Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
16 markets
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiClosed100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
Carlos Alcaraz100%
Matteo Arnaldi0%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz bid / ask
99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Carlos Alcaraz.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
Yes100%
No0%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Yes bid / ask
99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 WinnerClosed100%
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
Carlos Alcaraz100%
Matteo Arnaldi0%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz bid / ask
99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins the first set. It will resolve to “Matteo Arnaldi” if Matteo Arnaldi wins the first set.
If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 WinnerClosed100%
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
Carlos Alcaraz100%
Matteo Arnaldi0%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz bid / ask
99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins set 2. It will resolve to “Matteo Arnaldi” if Matteo Arnaldi wins set 2.
If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Total Sets: O/U 2.5Closed0%
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Over 2.50%
Under 2.5100%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over 2.5 bid / ask
— / 0.1¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 3, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, or is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. An outcome is considered unequivocally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, for a line of 2.5, if play stops with the players at one set each, completing the match would have required at least one additional set, resulting in at least 3 sets played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled, or has not been completed by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless an outcome was already unequivocally determined as described above.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 8.5Closed100%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Over100%
Under0%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
83.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 9.5Closed100%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Over100%
Under0%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 10.5Closed100%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Over100%
Under0%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 8.5Closed0%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
Over0%
Under100%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
— / 0.8¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 9.5Closed0%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
Over0%
Under100%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
— / 0.8¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 10.5Closed0%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
Over0%
Under100%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
— / 0.8¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 21.5Closed0%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 21.5
Over0%
Under100%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
— / 0.1¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 22.5Closed0%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 22.5
Over0%
Under100%
Liquidity
$0
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
— / 0.1¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 23.5Closed0%
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 23.5
Over0%
Under100%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Over bid / ask
— / 0.1¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set Handicap +/-1.5Closed100%
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)
Carlos Alcaraz100%
Matteo Arnaldi0%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz bid / ask
99.3¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Matteo Arnaldi, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi."
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi."
If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Game Spread +/-5.5Closed100%
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-5.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+5.5)
Carlos Alcaraz100%
Matteo Arnaldi0%
Liquidity
Unavailable
Deadline · UTC
Oct 10, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz bid / ask
99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 5.5 or more total games than Matteo Arnaldi in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi".
Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 5.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi".
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
