Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$181.6K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJan 31, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds100%

Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jan 31, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On January 9, videos showing alleged acts of arson in Los Angeles county were reported (see: https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-news/arsonists-caught-setting-fires-in-302-pico-in-santa-monica-video-amid-los-angeles-fire-surfaces-article-117073863). This market will resolve to "Yes" if any person is arrested in connection with starting fires in Los Angeles county between January 7, and January 9, by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Actions such as questioning or detention without an individual formally coming under arrest will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.