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Arizona Governor Election: Maricopa County Winner
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 13 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$40
Total volume$4.2K
Liquidity$57.9K
Event end date · UTCNov 3, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
13 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Katie Hobbs (D)Accepting ordersMarket odds87.5%
Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Yes87.5%Polymarket estimate
No12.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $18.6K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 3, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 87.0¢ / 88.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.