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April 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$990.4K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCApr 30, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<1.22ClosedMarket odds0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 30, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of a named bracket for April 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for April 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2025 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".