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Anthropic lab leak by...?
24h volume$111.3
Total volume$144.7K
Liquidity$53.6K
Event end date · UTCJul 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31, 2026Accepting orders3.5%
Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?
Yes3.5%
No96.6%
- Liquidity
- $41.8K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 3.4¢ / 3.5¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Initial research coverage focuses on politics and the economy.