
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceX Dragon spacecraft—either Cargo Dragon or Crew Dragon— undertakes a NASA-contracted mission to the International Space Station (ISS) between June 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A successful launch is defined as the Dragon taking off from its launchpad regardless of any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" if no such mission is completed within the specified timeframe. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 8:23:13 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.