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Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$162.2K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNot specified
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
September 30ClosedMarket odds0%
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Not specified
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.1¢ / 0.5¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that violated Polish airspace on September 10. For more information see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government or military of Poland reports another Russian aerial vehicle (e.g., aircraft, drone) violated Polish airspace between September 12, 4 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official announcements by the Polish government (e.g., press releases or statements published on official government websites).