Another India x Pakistan ceasefire announced by Friday?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$83.3K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCMay 16, 2025

Price history

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds100%

Another India x Pakistan ceasefire announced by Friday?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: May 16, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On May 10, India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire (see: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05/10/world/pakistan-india-kashmir), however continued hostilities have been reported (see: https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1921228906230628691) This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between India and Pakistan is announced between May 10, 12:00 PM and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. An announced agreement by both India and Pakistan to reinstate the previous agreed upon May 10th ceasefire deal will qualify. If the agreement is announced by both countries before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Qualifying agreements must be announced by both countries. A formal, signed agreement between the countries is not necessary to resolve this market, however explicit statements made by both countries that they are ceasing military action for an overlapping timeframe is required. Mere de-escalation or an absence of military activity will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" without explicit public statements from both sides indicating a ceasefire. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply a specific theater, or type of military action will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both India and Pakistan.