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Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.4K
Liquidity$10.3K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting ordersMarket odds2.5%
Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Yes2.5%Polymarket estimate
No97.6%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $10.3K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.5¢ / 3.4¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 9:14:12 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.