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Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 8 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$176
Total volume$10.4K
Liquidity$80.1K
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
8 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<230KAccepting ordersMarket odds0.6%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be less than 230,000?
Yes0.6%Polymarket estimate
No99.4%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $19.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.3¢ / 0.9¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.