
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if "Trump" or "trump" is said at least once by every invited candidate during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Mentions of the word trump need not specifically refer to any individual. For example if a candidate says "My policies trump his!" it will count. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if "Biden" is said at least once by every participating candidate during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if "Hamas" is said 15 or more times by the invited candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if "Ukraine" is said 10 or more times by the invited candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, the demonym "Ukrainian" will also count toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if "Israel" is said 15 or more times by the invited candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, the demonym "Israeli" will also count toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if "terrorist" is said 10 or more times by the invited candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, mentions of the word "terrorism" will count toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if "ceasefire" is said 5 or more times by the invited candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any invited candidate says "alien" during the RNC primary debate scheduled for November 8, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 5:10:58 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.