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10-year Treasury yield >4.5% next Friday?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$8.3K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCMay 23, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% next Friday?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- May 23, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on May 23, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 5:45:55 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.